Page 35 of Tom Clancy Line of Sight
The secretary of state shrugged. “Europe’s always been that way. They never carry their full load, and they seldom follow through. As far as Bosnia’s concerned, they didn’t want to pay the price for continued peacekeeping operations, and their attention is drawn elsewhere these days.”
“I thought the Europeans had a high representative over the entire Bosnian government—some joker who can pull crazy politicians and stubborn bureaucrats out of office, and implement laws or whatever else they need to do to keep the peace and make the government function,” Arnie said.
“You sound a little jealous of this high representative guy,” Ryan said, smiling.
“It would make things a lot easier around here if you hadthat kind of power over Congress.” Arnie’s pale blue eyes smiled mischievously.
“No, thanks,” Ryan said.
The secretary of state said, “The bottom line is that in recent years, the high representative has stepped back from any kind of intervention, in order to promote Bosnian self-determination.”
“Which is just another way for the Europeans to say they don’t want to be bothered with it anymore. But by pulling out those peacekeepers, they’ve created one hell of a power vacuum,” Ryan said. “And the Russians, like nature, abhor a vacuum.”
The President crossed over to the wall of monitors.
“There are recent reports of escalating violence in Bosnia, and the re-formation of ethnic militias,” Foley said. “That fits your vacuum thesis quite neatly.”
“It’s a damn powder keg over there,” Adler said. “Five hundred years of blood feuds and genocides. It’s like the damn Hatfields and McCoys, but with IEDs and machine guns.”
Ryan touched the Bosnian map. “The Russian New Gen warfare model fits this situation perfectly, doesn’t it? They have the means, the proximity, and the natural target—an ethnically and politically divided country right next door to Serbia. Even if the Russians don’t want to take Bosnia over, another bloody civil war in the heart of Europe will demand a NATO response.”
“Tying up NATO forces for years, maybe decades,” Burgess said. “Freeing the Russians up to pursue their interests elsewhere.”
“And keeping NATO from any further expansion,” Adler added.
The DNI shook her head grimly. “That’s playing with fire.After the last war, the Bosniaks aren’t going to wait around for NATO to save them from Serbian attacks. They’ll retaliate quickly and in force.”
“There are twenty-five million Muslims in Europe who might rise up if NATO doesn’t act swiftly enough, or if the Serb attacks are too vicious,” the SecState added.
“Bosnia,” Ryan said, processing a thought. He tapped the map again. “The cradle of modern jihad against the West. This is where it all began, twenty-six years ago.”
Ryan turned around to face the long mahogany table, his prodigious memory kicking into high gear. “Osama bin Laden was issued a Bosnian passport at one time, and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed—the mastermind of 9/11—was granted Bosnian citizenship. Thousands of jihadis flocked from all over the world to fight in the war against the Western powers in defense of the Umma in Bosnia. Al-Qaeda learned its first battle lessons here before moving on to Afghanistan.”
“We can’t let that happen again,” the SecDef said. “The radicals don’t need another base of operations, particularly one in the heart of Europe. We need to stomp that out before it even gets started.”
“So that’s the Russian plan? Reignite a Muslim war in Europe?” Arnie said.
Burgess and Adler exchanged a worried glance as Ryan poured himself a cup of coffee.
“Maybe,” Ryan said.
“Maybe?” Adler asked.
“The Russians aren’t stupid,” Ryan said, “and they’re pretty good at history, too.” He took a sip of hot coffee as he headed back for the map. “That’s a lot of chaos, and it could easily spin out of control. Especially if the Serbs are suddenly on the badend of the stick again. For the sake of their existing alliances and their credibility, the Russians would have to intervene.”
“If ethnic Croats in Bosnia got caught up in all of that, Croatia might take advantage of the situation again, just like in the last war,” Adler said. “They booted two hundred thousand Serbs out of Croatia in 1995. Some of their politicians have dreams of Greater Croatia just like many Serbs dream of Greater Serbia.”
Ryan touched the map again. “Here. Sarajevo. Ring a bell, anyone?”
“Oh my God,” Foley said. “World War One.”
“Archduke Ferdinand and his wife killed by a Serbian nationalist, right in the heart of the city,” Ryan said. “That was the spark that lit the fuse.”
“Resulting in the collapse of three empires, including Russia’s,” Adler said.
“The Russians are a lot of things, but suicidal isn’t one of them,” Ryan said. “A civil war in Bosnia could turn into another clash of empires. Another world war.”
“So youdon’tthink the Russians are engaging in New Gen warfare over there?” Van Damm said.
